SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211806
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-211900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AL...PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211806Z - 211900Z
STORMS ARE GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COULD
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A SWD/SEWD MOVING LINE. IF THIS HAPPENS...A
WATCH PROBABLY WOULD BE NEEDED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM IL SWWD INTO AL/MS AREA WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
EWD...RESULTING IN RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THIS IS A
NEGATIVE FOR STRONG CONVECTION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTH OF GWO
SEWD TO SEM SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING NEAR 3000
J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30
KT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. THE STORMS MAY
ORGANIZE INTO BANDS/LINES...WITH NWLY WINDS ALOFT LIKELY TO CARRY
LINES SWD/SEWD. IF THIS OCCURS...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COUPLED
WITH A SWD MOVING LINE INTO A VERY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
..IMY.. 05/21/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...
LAT...LON 34039022 33168825 32408633 31088614 30658848 30948925
33779107 34039022
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