SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221128
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-221300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0660
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN NEB AND WESTERN IA/SOUTHWEST MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 221128Z - 221300Z
STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR
EASTERN NEB INTO WESTERN IA/SOUTHWEST MN. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN THE NEAR-DAWN HOURS ACROSS FAR
EASTERN NEB...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR EASTERN SD/FAR
SOUTHWEST MN ON THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN ONGOING ELEVATED MCS.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE EDGE OF A
NORTHEASTWARD-BUILDING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/CAP...WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT/ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AIDED BY A STRONG/EARLY MORNING
VEERING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET /50-60 KT PER HASTINGS
WSR-88D VWP AND FAIRBURY PROFILER/. WHILE SOME DEGREE OF MID LEVEL
FLOW WEAKNESS MAY HINDER ELEVATED SUPERCELLULAR TENDENCIES...STRONG
SOURCE REGION BUOYANCY/LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE MORNING. IT IS CURRENTLY THOUGHT THAT THE
ANTICIPATED COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A
WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
..GUYER.. 05/22/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 43809663 44429530 43029424 41389425 40409645 43809663
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