Sunday, May 23, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0673

ACUS11 KWNS 231908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231908
MNZ000-WIZ000-232015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MN AND NWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231908Z - 232015Z

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NERN MN DURING THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AND THEN SPREAD EWD INTO NWRN WI. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AT 19Z...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR INL
SWWD TO NORTH AND WEST OF RWF. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY EWD THIS AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET MAX LOCATED OVER MANITOBA...AND AID CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30-40 KT
AND MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HOWEVER...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES AND
GRADUALLY BACKING OF WINDS ALOFT DO RAISE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
INTENSITY AS WELL AS THE COVERAGE OF STORMS. IF IT BECOMES EVIDENT
THAT STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAN BE SUSTAINED...A WW WOULD THEN BECOME
MORE LIKELY.

..IMY.. 05/23/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

LAT...LON 45419388 45949391 47569271 48059174 47889057 47388986
45659111 45009228 45099327 45419388

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