MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0685

ACUS11 KWNS 240956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240956
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-241200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0685
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NM/SOUTHEAST CO AND TX/OK PANHANDLES TO
WESTERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 240956Z - 241200Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE/POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NM/SOUTHERN CO TO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES AND WESTERN KS.

IR SATELLITE/VOLUMETRIC RADAR IMAGERY REFLECT A RECENT INCREASE IN
TSTMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WITH
TIME...UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT /AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS
VICINITY/...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY/MID
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING
NORTHEAST NM/SOUTHEAST CO TO WESTERN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. IT
IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE QUASI-FOCUSED ON THE
DRYLINE WHERE AMPLE MOISTURE IS BACKED WESTWARD WELL INTO SOUTHEAST
CO/NORTHEAST NM...WITH AN UPSWING IN DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
PROBABLE AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT GRADUALLY OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS.

STEEP LAPSE RATES/AMPLE WARM SECTOR MOISTURE AND STRONG
MERIDIONALLY-INFLUENCED LARGELY-UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL. DAMAGING
WINDS/PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO COULD BECOME A CONCERN RELATIVELY EARLY
IN THE DAY /LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY/ AS THE PRE-DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD
FRONT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS STRONG
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT EMERGES.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35480361 36620424 38200352 39480260 39980172 39410085
38440029 36230043 35190155 35480361

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.