Tuesday, May 25, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0705

ACUS11 KWNS 250824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250823
TXZ000-251000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0705
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...RIO GRANDE VICINITY/SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 250823Z - 251000Z

SMALL MCS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND/SEVERE HAIL/VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VICINITY/SOUTH TX
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT/MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE HAIL/WIND THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.

A SMALL BUT WELL-ORGANIZED/APPARENTLY MCV-AIDED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN MAVERICK COUNTY AS OF
0815Z...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEAST/PERHAPS GROW A BIT MORE UPSCALE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE I-35 VICINITY THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW KM AND MOIST/UNSTABLE
NEAR-SURFACE BASED INFLOW /PER THE PRE-CONVECTIVE 00Z DEL RIO
OBSERVED RAOB/...SOME MODEST FORWARD ACCELERATION COULD OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL
REMAINING POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE MOIST AMBIENT AIRMASS
/1.80 PRECIPITABLE WATER PER 00Z DEL RIO/ AND MODEST ESE STORM
MOTIONS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28980065 29430009 29639940 29009866 27539937 28980065

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