SWODY1
SPC AC 141607
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2010
VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX...ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY...INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WITH A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY...INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE
PARALLELS THIS SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW...AND WILL LIKELY BE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
...TX/OK...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHWEST OF LBB INTO SOUTHWEST OK. MEANWHILE...THE PRIMARY
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.
THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL WINDS OF 30-40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL /POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE/ ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY AND
HIGH CAPE VALUES COMBINED WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY RESULT IN A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS WELL.
...OH VALLEY...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL/IND/OH/KY
AHEAD OF WEAK REMNANT MCV. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BOTH ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR UPSCALE MCS EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.
...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
KY...MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KT. CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AHEAD
OF THE STORMS MAY LEAD TO A FEW INTENSE CORES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..HART/GRAMS.. 06/14/2010
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