SWODY1
SPC AC 151627
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010
VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
IL/IND...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN MO/AR INTO OH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WEST TX/EASTERN
NM...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ID/MT/WY...
...MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NEB/KS. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO FOCUS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF MO/IL/AR. GPS PW DATA AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LARGE RESERVOIR OF VERY
MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FROM THE OH RIVER SOUTHWARD...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S AND PW VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES.
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG
ACROSS THIS REGION.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER IL/MO/AR WILL BE NEAR 40
KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WIND MAX...AND WHERE MULTIPLE 12Z MODEL
RUNS INDICATE A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF 25-40 KNOT FLOW. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO MULTIPLE CLUSTERS AND BOWING SEGMENTS AND
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO IND DURING THE EVENING. WIDESPREAD
WIND DAMAGE APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MDT RISK CORRIDOR.
ALSO...SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER
CLUSTERS...CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL. IF AN
ORGANIZED BOW CAN DEVELOP...THREAT MAY EXTEND FARTHER EAST INTO OH
THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED.
...TX/NM...
REMNANT BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT. BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ONLY SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY BENEATH WEAK UPPER RIDGING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONT...AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM. THE MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS MAY BECOME
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...ID/MT...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRACKING ACROSS ORE/WA AND WILL AFFECT
ID/MT/WY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
BULLISH ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
ID INTO CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON...TRACKING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
MT THIS EVENING. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...SOUTHEAST STATES...
RATHER WIDESPREAD BUT DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS THROUGHOUT THIS REGION WILL POSE A RISK OF
BRIEF WET MICROBURSTS.
..HART/GRAMS.. 06/15/2010
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