SWODY1
SPC AC 211619
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2010
VALID 211630Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HI PLNS THROUGH
THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD ACROSS MT TODAY WITH TROUGH TRAILING BACK
ACROSS INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED IMPULSES CONTINUE
TRACKING EWD ACROSS BROAD CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WITH ONE OVER DAKOTAS
THIS AM AND ANOTHER OVER IA TIED TO WEAKENING MCS.
WHILE THE UPSLOPE HAS WEAKENED CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS SINCE
SUNDAY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MDT SWLY MID/UPPER FLOW CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.
...CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
AGAIN TODAY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEAK UPSLOPE FROM NERN CO TO ERN MT. STEEP LAPSE
RATES REMAIN IN PLACE AND WHILE UPSLOPE WEAKER THAN
SUNDAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM AND MLCAPE FROM
2-3K J/KG...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BOTH THE
APPROACH OF THE MT UPPER LOW IN NRN PLAINS AND PRESENCE OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS CO WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
STORMS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSCALE BY THIS EVENING INTO
ONE OR MORE MCS/S AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE. POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
ORGANIZED WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS STORMS CONGEAL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LARGE COLD POOLS.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND N OF THE
CURRENT E/W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
LIFTS BACK TOWARD THE NEB BORDER. INITIALLY SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...AGAIN
LIKELY EVOLVING INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING SQUALL LINE AS STORMS
CONGEAL AND DEVELOP A COLD POOL.
...MID MS TO OH VALLEY...
MCS OVER IA WITH TRAILING SQUALL LINE INTO NWRN MO WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING THE POOL OF VERY MOIST AND BECOMING QUITE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS FROM MO EWD INTO OH VALLEY. WITH STRONG HEATING...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE ENCOUNTERS MLCAPES OF 3-4K J/KG.
WHILE THE MDT INSTABILITY AND RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE A MORE ORGANIZED
WIND DAMAGE CONCERN AS THE STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINES/BOWS.
..HALES/STOPPKOTTE.. 06/21/2010
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