Thursday, June 3, 2010

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 031731
SWODY2
SPC AC 031730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2010

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...MID-MO VALLEY...UPPER MIDWEST...SRN GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY...

...MID-MO VALLEY/OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES...
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN STATES FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID-MO
VALLEY. SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS IA
AND SRN MN FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH
THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTING EWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY MIDDAY. TO
THE WEST...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM NRN KS NEWD ACROSS SRN IA...NRN MO...NRN IL AND SERN
WI WHERE THE MODELS INITIATE SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOCATED ON THE SRN EDGE OF
STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL HELP CREATE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR A SEVERE THREAT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6
KM SHEAR SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
ESPECIALLY IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF THE EVENT. AS THE EVENT
UNFOLDS...THE CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY MAY
DEVELOP A COLD POOL ORGANIZING INTO A LINE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30 TO
35 KT OF FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS NCNTRL IL AND NRN IND ESPECIALLY IF A PERSISTENT BOWING-LINE
SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO
BE WEAK...HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES
DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
HEIGHTS WILL START TO RISE ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY AS A SUBTLE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. BENEATH THE
DEVELOPING RIDGE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SSEWD ACROSS ERN
NEB INTO NRN KS AND STALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST SUGGESTING STORMS
WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NE KS SHOW 35 TO 40 KT
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM
SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP DUE TO STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY IF A LINE CAN ORGANIZE IN THE EARLY
EVENING.

...GULF COAST STATES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ALONG THE COAST OF SW LA
FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING FROM
THE CENTER OF THE LOW EWD AS SFC TEMPS WARM. MODEL FORECASTS FRIDAY
SHOW STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A 25 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUGGESTING A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT
COULD DEVELOP. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXTEND EWD ACROSS SRN
MS...SRN AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
ABOUT 25 KT OF FLOW AT 850 MB WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES.. 06/03/2010

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