SWODY2
SPC AC 071730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2010
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS THROUGH MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-ZONAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH BELT
OF STRONGER WLYS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER TROUGH
NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION NWWD TO A SURFACE
LOW OVER KS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.
...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...
AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN VICINITY OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP EWD DURING THE DAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MIGRATORY SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT STORMS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE MCS COULD BECOME
FORWARD PROPAGATING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE ONGOING
STORMS AND SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOURCES OF
MESOSCALE LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS KS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EWD...LIKELY SPREADING INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MCS WILL LIKELY REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTH OF ONGOING
MCS FROM CNTRL/SRN KS INTO CNTRL/SRN MO SHOULD REMAIN ON SRN FRINGE
OF BELT OF STRONGER WLYS WITH WIND PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTICELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
ELY UPSLOPE REGIME IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF SWD ADVANCING
FRONT ACROSS CO. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WWD NORTH
OF THE FRONT BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN AN AXIS OF
MARGINAL-MODERATE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN CO. THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS REGIME OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES. THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY BE SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR 30-40 KT
FOR UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP MID-LEVEL ROTATION. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..DIAL.. 06/07/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment