SWODY2
SPC AC 131730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
CONSIDERABLE SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ONE OR MORE DECAYING MCS/S ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING ALONG A BROAD WSW-ENE ORIENTED FRONTAL
ZONE...THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED/EFFECTIVELY
SHUNTED SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE OCCURRING FROM NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS TO MO AND PERHAPS
IL/INDIANA. ONE OR MORE PRESUMED MCV/MCS/S AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS
WILL HELP TO FOCUS RENEWED DOWNSTREAM TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY/PERHAPS TN VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF 30-40 KT WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...HIGH PW
ENVIRONMENT/DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN FUEL AN AFTERNOON UPSWING IN
TSTM COVERAGE/VIGOR. THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE
SEMI-ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/EVOLVING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS/PERHAPS SOME HAIL THROUGH MONDAY EARLY/MID EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST/POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE ACROSS OK AND THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF TX...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF 1500-3000 J/KG MLCAPES BY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT. THE MOIST AIRMASS/WEAK INHIBITION SHOULD
YIELD A RELATIVELY EARLY UPSWING OF TSTMS ACROSS OK/SOUTHEAST KS TO
SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR MONDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. A BIT TARDIER/PERHAPS MORE
SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE DRYLINE/FRONT
ACROSS WEST TX WHERE THE CAP WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER. HERE...LARGE
HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...A MODEST ENHANCEMENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN
A CONTINUAL FEED OF INSTABILITY INTO SW FLANKS OF EVENING STORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SET-UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BACKBUILDING
STORMS FROM NORTHWEST TX AND OK INTO THE OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO AN INCREASING
CONCERN.
...IA/NORTHERN MO/WESTERN IL VICINITY...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
EFFECTIVELY FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
KS/MO/IL...LARGELY OWING TO EXPECTED EARLY DAY CONVECTION/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...12Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE DEPICT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS IA/NORTHERN MO INTO
IL IN VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND THE OLD SYNOPTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WHILE LIKELY TO BE WEAKLY FORCED ON THE LARGE SCALE WITH
LIMITED NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE...AT THIS TIME CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS FAR NORTH AS IA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
...FRONT RANGE/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN CO/NORTHEAST NM...
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WEAK EASTERLY
UPSLOPE WILL SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
CO. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE/BECOME STRONGER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. WHILE
SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...LIMITED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK RELATIVELY
LOW.
..GUYER.. 06/13/2010
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