SWODY2
SPC AC 141735
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...OH VALLEY/MIDWEST TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...APPRECIABLE DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION IS AGAIN ANTICIPATED
WITHIN A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH AN AFTERNOON INCREASE IN
TSTM COVERAGE/VIGOR ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT/ANY EARLY DAY TSTM CLUSTERS. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR CLUSTERS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL AS THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW...SOME
STRONG/SEVERE LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY VICINITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF MCS/S WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CORRIDOR ACROSS
OK/NORTH TX TO THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY...THE AIRMASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IMPLY THE POSSIBILITY OF 2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NEUTRAL/LIMITED LARGE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AMPLE CONVERGENCE/HEATING
AND/OR LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE NEAR THE TX CAPROCK/HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST NM/SOUTHEAST CO SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH A TENDENCY FOR
WEAKENING W/SW FLOW ALOFT...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS MAY BE
SUPERCELLULAR WITH RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBILITY A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES.
...NORTHERN ROCKIES...
AS A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...AMPLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT/STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SUSTAINED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
ID/SOUTHWEST MT INTO WESTERN WY. THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE HAIL/WIND...AND PERHAPS EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO.
..GUYER.. 06/14/2010
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