SWODY2
SPC AC 281724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...
...NRN ROCKIES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS MOVES SLOWLY EWD. A
SWLY 50 TO 65 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES WITH THIS FEATURE CREATING 40 TO 55 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. IN ADDITION TO THE SHEAR...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE AROUND 50 F WHICH WILL HELP TO CREATE MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY MID-AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM. THE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS THOUGH
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED DUE TO RELATIVELY
WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
SHOULD EXIST ACROSS NW MT AND NCNTRL ID WHERE THE MODELS SHOW STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STEEPEST
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
...GULF COAST STATES/CAROLINAS...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD INTO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES
AND WRN CAROLINAS TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WARM
SECTOR WILL BE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70 F...ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES. THIS SHOULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP.
...TX/LA COASTS...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FORECASTING TROPICAL STORM ALEX TO
STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AND TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN...THE OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX
COULD BE LOCATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TX AND LA COASTS IF THE CENTER
OF THE SYSTEM MOVES A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST. IN THIS CASE...THE
MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE RAINBANDS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE SLOWER FORECAST MOTION...WILL NOT ADD ANY
PROBABILITIES ATTM.
..BROYLES.. 06/28/2010
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