SWODY2
SPC AC 291729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM THE
PACIFIC NW/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE NERN/MID ATLANTIC STATES AS A
RIDGE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. MEANWHILE...
TROPICAL SYSTEM ALEX PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE/FORECAST SHOULD MOVE
INLAND OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO COAST/LOWER TX COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES EXPECTED TO TRACK
NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE
PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PER 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF MOVING ACROSS MT
DURING PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTENING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT MOVING E/SEWD ACROSS MT DURING THE DAY COMBINED WITH
HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY.
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE NEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
BOTH ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 35-50 KT WITH VECTORS ORIENTED
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUGGESTS LINES/BOWING STRUCTURES WILL
BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR VALUES
AND VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO THREAT.
...SOUTH TX COAST...
REFERENCE NHC FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON TROPICAL SYSTEM
ALEX...WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST MEXICO/ LOWER
TX COAST...MAKING LANDFALL WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE APPROACH OF
ALEX/OUTER BANDS MAINTAINS KEEPING TORNADO-RELATED SEVERE
PROBABILITIES FOR THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN.
...SOUTHEAST STATES...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL REMAIN WEAK...SURFACE HEATING OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. STORM COVERAGE MAY BE
GREATEST ACROSS SRN SC/ERN GA WHERE COLD FRONT/SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN ENHANCED STORM COVERAGE. WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE WET DOWNBURSTS.
..PETERS.. 06/29/2010
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