SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011521
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-011615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0759
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN/CNTRL IA...SE SD...NW MO
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 011521Z - 011615Z
AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS ERN
NEB...WRN/CNTRL IA...SE SD AND NW MO FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA. THE MORE DOMINANT STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE VERY
LARGE HAIL.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF KS AND MO EXTENDING NWD TO NEAR OMAHA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS MODERATELY INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
RANGE. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING INVERSION EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS ERN NEB AND SE SD AS THE CAP WEAKENS. THE 12Z OMAHA SOUNDING
SHOWS 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS WILL CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL. THE MORE
DOMINANT SUPERCELLS WITH ACCESS TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN ERN NEB AND
WRN IA SHOULD PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH
SUPERCELLS NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF AN MCS OR COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE.
..BROYLES.. 06/01/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 40879370 40109498 40089651 40469784 41439872 42549840
43119749 43249605 43059470 42249365 41689338 40879370
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