Tuesday, June 8, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0856

ACUS11 KWNS 081850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081850
MNZ000-NDZ000-081945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 081850Z - 081945Z

INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS LED TO A
BROKEN LINE OF TCU/CB ACROSS CNTRL ND. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLOWLY AS THE ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN ND CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 800-1200 J/KG /WITH COLD
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 C AT 500 MB/ SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO YIELD A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL...ALTHOUGH LACK OF ROBUST
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT. A
FEW STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SFC T-TD
SPREADS IN EXCESS OF 15 DEG F. GIVEN THE ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF
THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE
NEEDED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS.. 06/08/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 46549766 46549920 47099933 47629942 48169959 48969981
48959933 48989873 48979730 48379714 47809690 47309681
46539675 46549766

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