MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0866

ACUS11 KWNS 091534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091534
MIZ000-WIZ000-091730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0866
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...PARTS OF
NE WI...NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 091534Z - 091730Z

THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.

A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ALONG THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER CLOSED LOW MIGRATING EASTWARD NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY
IS ALLOWING FOR CONSIDERABLE SURFACE HEATING ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO
THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH A RELATIVELY COLD MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT /-15 TO -18C AT 500 MB/... AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION NOW IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING/SPREADING ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...THIS DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO INCREASING AND STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. BY 17-19Z...A FEW VIGOROUS STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/LOCALIZED STRONG WIND
GUSTS WHICH COULD AT LEAST APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 06/09/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON 46338890 46778774 46808628 46278530 45468561 45208715
45488814 46338890

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