Sunday, June 13, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0920

ACUS11 KWNS 131655
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131655
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-131800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0920
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NERN MO...W-CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131655Z - 131800Z

SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-MS/LOWER MO VALLEYS. MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY AMIDST ENHANCED LOWER/MID-LEVEL SWLYS ON SRN PERIPHERY
OF MCV OVER IA SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND A FEW
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 18Z.

TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS NERN INTO CNTRL MO ON SRN
FRINGE OF FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MCV CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL IA
/PER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY/. AS DOWNSTREAM TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S...MLCAPE VALUES
AOA 2500 J/KG WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON ALONG THE LOWER
MO/MIDDLE-MS VALLEYS. A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW /EVIDENT IN
LATHROP MO PROFILER/ WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KT
WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLYS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
MULTICELL/BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..GRAMS.. 06/13/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 39159330 39979265 40729158 40639038 40358936 39678903
38808940 38049017 37739078 37719180 38249285 38639342
39159330

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