MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1053

ACUS11 KWNS 211604
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211604
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-211730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IND/SWRN OH

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 211604Z - 211730Z

HEAVY RAINFALL RATES 1.5-2 INCHES PER HOUR...WITH LOCALLY 3+ IN/HR
RATES...EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN IND AND SWRN OH AS
SEVERAL BANDS OF TSTMS TRACK ESEWD IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT.

LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL IND ESEWD INTO SWRN AND SRN OH. AT 1545Z...AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO THE TSTM COMPLEX LOCATED OVER IND INTERSECTED
THE WARM FRONT IN SERN IND IN RUSH COUNTY. DESPITE WEAK MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER THE OH VALLEY...VERY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S AND TEMPERATURES RISING
THROUGH THE MID 80S ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE
WARM SECTOR. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /GPS PW INDICATED UP TO
2 INCHES IN WRN IND/ AND DEEP WARM CLOUD PROCESSES GIVEN FREEZING
LEVEL UP TO 14 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATE
POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON.

30 KT WNWLY LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL IND
PER WSR-88D VADS IS RESULTING IN A WAA REGIME THAT SHOULD MAINTAIN
NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THE MCS...WHILE THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EWD
ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. GIVEN THAT SEVERAL BANDS OF TSTMS WILL
TRACK ESEWD ACROSS FAR SERN IND INTO SWRN OH THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON AND CORFIDI VECTORS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN WEAK...TRAINING
STORMS MAY ENHANCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL RATE POTENTIAL IN ANY ONE
LOCATION.

..PETERS.. 06/21/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...

LAT...LON 39488508 39678476 39588432 39368380 39018358 39038430
39118509 39078576 39488508

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