SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211728
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-211830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1054
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 211728Z - 211830Z
WATCH WILL BE NEEDED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND
CENTRAL MO INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL IL.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD
FROM NERN IA THROUGH CENTRAL IL/IND INTO SRN OH. REGIONAL
RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED AN AREA OF TSTMS TRACKING ENEWD
ACROSS SERN IA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REMNANT IA MCS AND
ASCENT WITH ATTENDANT MCV/SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL SWWD INTO CENTRAL MO WHERE STRONG
SURFACE HEATING IS WEAKENING SBCINH SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE BASED
STORMS. ALTHOUGH STORMS IN WEST CENTRAL IL MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED TO THE NNE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY... WHICH EXTENDED FROM
SRN IL NWWD TO NERN MO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BECOME SURFACE BASED AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C PER
KM/ WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES ALREADY RANGING FROM 1500-3000
J/KG FROM MO INTO SERN IA AND SRN/CENTRAL IL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
INDICATED EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
WITH FURTHER INCREASE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
..PETERS.. 06/21/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...
LAT...LON 39239450 39979322 40789185 40929050 40808979 40088926
38938969 38719117 38769382 39239450
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