SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221503
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-221600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN MO / CNTRL IL / W-CNTRL IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 221503Z - 221600Z
STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY ACROSS NERN MO INTO CNTRL IL AS OF
15Z. THIS TREND IN INTENSIFICATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS DOWNSTREAM OVER PARTS OF E-CNTRL IL AND
W-CNTRL IND. IF STORM ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO INCREASE...A WW
WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.
RADAR MOSAIC LOOP OVER THE PAST 30 MIN SHOWS AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL IL AND A BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS FAR NERN MO
MOVING INTO W-CNTRL IL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER SERN IA/NERN MO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS IL THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...ALTHOUGH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SURGED SWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING...THE AIRMASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORMS IS
DESTABILIZING IN WAKE OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. TEMPS ARE WARMING TO
NEAR 80 DEG F WITHIN A BROKEN PATCH OF RESIDUAL HIGH CLOUD COVER
ALONG AND S OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM STL TO HSV...WHERE RUC
SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL AT LEAST SUPPORT
COLD POOL GENERATION/UPSCALE GROWTH ORGANIZATION LEADING TO A THREAT
FOR MAINLY DMGG WINDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
..SMITH.. 06/22/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38398760 38938998 39499193 39879206 40159175 40179029
40178890 39558671 39108644 38608669 38398760
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