SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231552
PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-231645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND...NRN OH...SE LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394...
VALID 231552Z - 231645Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394
CONTINUES.
STRONGEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL HAVE SHIFTED INTO
SRN/ERN EDGES OF THE VALID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW AFTERNOON SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
EVOLVE. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THE
TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NRN IND AND NRN OH WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WITH TIME...BUT WITH A FORMIDABLE WARM LAYER
AROUND 700 MB. OBVIOUSLY...WIND FIELDS...CHARACTERIZED BY LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW...WOULD SUPPORT BOTH BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AND BOW ECHOES. THE UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND
MAGNITUDE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT AMID WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL FORCING
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
SHOULD STORMS BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OVER NWRN IND INTO NWRN OH...A NEW
WATCH WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED. AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER... LACK OF
ORGANIZATION SEEMS TO ARGUE AGAINST A NEW WW...BUT WILL LEAVE THE
POTENTIAL OPEN.
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS STILL MAINTAIN A SCENARIO OF MORE STORMS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACROSS ERN IA/NRN IL AND MOVING ESE INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.
..RACY.. 06/23/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...
LAT...LON 43758180 42938075 41678009 40798032 40398176 40348406
40648618 41198732 41828622 43938237 43758180
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