SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241616
MAZ000-MEZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-241745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN VT...CENTRAL/SRN NH...SWRN
MAINE...MA...CT...RI...SERN NY INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...NJ...PA
EXCEPT FAR NORTHWESTERN...CENTRAL/NRN MD INCLUDING
PANHANDLE...DE...DC...NRN VA...EXTREME ERN WV INCLUDING PANHANDLE.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 404...
VALID 241616Z - 241745Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 404
CONTINUES.
SVR POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR EXISTING WW...PRIMARILY FOR DAMAGING
WIND...AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MIX/DESTABILIZE MAINLY AHEAD
OF PA CONVECTIVE BAND. ADDITIONALLY...NEW WW PROBABLY WILL BE
REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR SEWD TOWARD ATLANTIC COAST FROM PORTIONS
SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD OVER COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AREAS
FARTHER N ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WW AS WELL. SEVERE POTENTIAL NEAR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND
SWRN MAINE IS MORE CONDITIONAL DUE TO RELATIVELY LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT ALSO MAY INCREASE WITH TIME.
ALTHOUGH SUBSTANTIAL SFC DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT IS EVIDENT IN
IMMEDIATE LEE OF MOUNTAINS AND VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BILLOW CLOUDS AND
LINGERING STABLE AIR E OF MOUNTAINS FROM SERN NY INTO MD...THIS AIR
MASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE DIABATICALLY SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT TSTM
POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SFC DEW POINTS NOW ANALYZED FROM UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F
WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH
WEAKENING CINH. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS REGION...WHILE ABUNDANCE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GENERALLY INCREASES SWD...MOST FAVORABLE
JUXTAPOSITION BEING IN CORRIDOR COVERING CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS WW 404
SEWD TO COAST THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. AS MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WITH RELATED HEIGHT GRADIENT ENHANCEMENT AND DCVA ALOFT
APCH...PRIND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 50 KT SWD
ACROSS NJ AS ALREADY IS APPARENT OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
INTO ERN PA.
..EDWARDS.. 06/24/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LWX...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 40478061 41727775 43697387 44187177 43737085 43477036
43137067 42897081 42707080 42697074 42717058 42617057
42577061 42527085 42407100 42317102 42267090 42217073
42097066 41997067 41927054 41797053 41737033 41787008
41847000 41967004 42037012 42047019 41997023 42097029
42117020 42047002 41866989 41716991 41547001 41387005
41276995 41257004 41267020 41297029 41347049 41297082
41457087 41427110 41477121 41477135 41397149 41137154
41017189 40707300 40597374 40537397 40437398 40177398
39677412 39427441 38607741 38438013 39017948 40478061
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