Saturday, June 26, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1131

ACUS11 KWNS 261734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261733
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-261830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1131
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA / PARTS OF THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261733Z - 261830Z

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN VA EXTENDING SWWD INTO
PARTS OF THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT
SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSIFYING DISCRETE
STORMS FORMING NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE
ACROSS SERN VA TOWARDS THE GREATER RALEIGH AREA. ALONG AND E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS HAS RESULTED IN STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND AREA 88D VAD DATA SHOWS WNWLY 25 KT 3 KM FLOW WITHIN A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /2500 J/KG MLCAPE/. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF WIND
DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. FARTHER NE ACROSS SERN
VA...ALTHOUGH THE REGION IS RELEGATED S OF THE STRONGER BELT OF
WLY/S ACROSS THE NERN U.S...30-35 KTS CLOUD BEARING SHEAR EXTENDS
INTO THIS AREA. HERE...MULTICELLULAR/WEAK SUPERCELL STORM
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH WEAK ROTATION ALREADY OBSERVED IN
THE PAST HOUR.

..SMITH.. 06/26/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 35308038 36687829 37967661 37637597 36977578 34407978
34818031 35308038

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