SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261816
IAZ000-262015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1132
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN IA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 261816Z - 262015Z
SVR POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS SE OF WW 415...WITH
MIXED MODE OF MULTICELL...SMALL BOWS AND HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELLS
POSSIBLE. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPENING CONVECTIVE TOWERS OVER
PORTIONS WEBSTER/STORY/HAMILTON/BOONE COUNTIES...INITIALLY APPEARING
TO BE BASED IN ELEVATED/ACCAS-BEARING REGIME ALOFT BUT WITH DISTINCT
POTENTIAL TO ACCESS INCREASINGLY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRENGTHEN INTO STG-SVR TSTMS AND BRUSH SERN
PORTIONS WW 415...AND/OR AFFECT AREAS JUST SE OF WW.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...FROM JUST S MLI WNWWD ACROSS FOD AREA AND BENEATH THOSE
TOWERS. BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD 10-15 KT AND BECOME MORE
DIFFUSE THERMALLY AS BOTH SIDES GET MORE STRONGLY DIABATICALLY
HEATED. KINEMATIC/VORTICITY REMNANTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
LINGER LONGER...HOWEVER...PRIMARY AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY
SHIFTING NEWD WITH BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL FLOW IS WEAK AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO -- I.E. 15-20 KT IN 4-6 KM AGL LAYER PER
PROFILER/VWP DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS -- ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PERSISTS INVOF BOUNDARY...YIELDING CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH
100-200 J/KG. ALTHOUGH BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ATTM...HEIGHTS
ALOFT ARE FCST TO FALL ACROSS THIS AREA AFTER 18Z IN ADVANCE OF
MID-UPPER PERTURBATION...NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
FROM CENTRAL SD SSWWD ACROSS ERN CO. SFC INSOLATION AND DEW POINTS
70S F SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN MLCINH IN CORRIDOR ALONG/N OF
BOUNDARY...COMBINING WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO BOOST MLCAPE
TO NEAR 4000 J/KG.
..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 42559453 42539302 43429305 43099189 41919116 41309117
41239191 41629347 42559453
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