Saturday, June 26, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1133

ACUS11 KWNS 261925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261924
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-262030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...SWRN ND AND WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261924Z - 262030Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NERN WY...SERN MT AND WRN SD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE AND A WW IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED FROM NERN MT SWWD INTO WRN WY AND APPEARED TO
BE AIDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN WY
AND SERN MT AND THE BLACK HILLS. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THE CLOUDS ARE
THINNING. THIS WARMING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES ARE RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY....WITH MLCAPES FROM
2000-3000 J/KG. ALONG WITH THIS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...THE
INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFTING AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 40 KT WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

..IMY.. 06/26/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON 43410135 43020186 43060439 43210493 43890526 46310499
46460375 46310144 43410135

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