SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271843
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-272045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN OH...CENTRAL/NRN
INDIANA...CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI...SWRN LH...WRN LE.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423...
VALID 271843Z - 272045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423
CONTINUES.
INITIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SRN LOWER MI IS WEAKENING...WITHOUT
APPRECIABLE CONVECTION TO DRIVE COLD POOL MAINTENANCE/REGENERATION.
HOWEVER...WING OF TSTMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THAT
COMPLEX CONTAINS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND
STG-SVR GUSTS...ACTIVITY POSES TORNADO RISK OVER SMALL AREA --
WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONTAL ZONE ANALYZED OVER SERN LOWER
MI. VWP INDICATES 35 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR AND ABOUT 300 J/KG SRH IN SAME
LAYER. SUSTAINED SUPERCELL THREAT DIMINISHES SEWD THROUGH
INDIANA/OH IN ACCORDANCE WITH PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER SRH AND LESS
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...BUT ADDITIONAL MCS/COLD-POOL FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AS PRIMARY THREAT.
SOME MOIST AND MRGLLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR LINGERS OVER
PORTIONS NERN IL BEHIND INITIAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AREA ALSO IS
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK/WLY FLOW AT SFC AND LACK OF FOCI FOR
CONVERGENCE/LIFT...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF LM LAKE BREEZE.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT THERE...PLUS FAVORABLE
RECOVERY OF AIR MASS OVER EXTREME NRN INDIANA AND SERN LOWER MI...IS
POSSIBLE BUT VERY CONDITIONAL. ANY SUCH ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO NWRN
PORTIONS WW.
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS N OF WW SHOULD REMAIN IN REGIME OF ELEVATED
WAA...ALTHOUGH RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS
ARE ROOTED CLOSE TO SFC ROUGHLY S OF GRR-MBS LINE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDE AROUND 50 KT IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH
RISK OF HAIL...DESPITE MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT. GUSTS NEAR SVR
LEVELS ALSO MAY PENETRATE TO SFC FROM MOST INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS.
..EDWARDS.. 06/27/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...
LAT...LON 41498683 42388590 43178608 44068371 43978223 43028237
42818249 42598252 42538262 42368286 42298308 42058316
41848309 41688271 41698239 41058231 41048243 40968244
40998274 40738278 40688286 40648287 40648290 40498302
40448327 40518326 40498353 40228357 40308402 40178401
40208439 39928444 39918484 40038481 40018522 40108523
40098559 39968561 39998744 40168752 40458746 40488712
40958694 41498683
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment