SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271949
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-272145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN OH...LE...WRN/NRN PA...WRN
NY...EXTREME NRN WV PANHANDLE.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 271949Z - 272145Z
SVR POTENTIAL MAY SPREAD/EXPAND EWD FROM WW 423 DURING REMAINDER
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN FORM OF DAMAGING WIND. A FEW SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL RISK AND A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO MAY
OCCUR...PARTICULARLY NEAR FRONTAL ZONE.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SERN LOWER MI
ACROSS SRN ONT...THEN EWD NEAR BUF...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY NEAR
PEO-ITH-ALB. IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY OVER WW AND OVER
SRN ONT TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...VIS IMAGERY INDICATES
SCATTERED TCU AND WIDELY SCATTERED CB IN FREE WARM SECTOR ALONG AND
S OF FRONT. AIR MASS MOSTLY IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS 70S
F OVER OH AND WRN PA...TRENDING TO MOSTLY MID-UPPER 60S OVER WRN NY.
WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUPPORT STG/DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL FROM ANY SUSTAINED
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MOST ORGANIZED WIND THREAT EXISTS WITH COLD
POOLS EVOLVING FROM RELATIVELY DENSE CONVECTION EXITING WW. FOR AT
LEAST ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS...MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG
OVER ERN OH/SWRN PA TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG ALONG FRONT. DEEP-LAYER
WINDS AND SHEAR EACH STRENGTHEN WITH NWD EXTENT OVER
REGION...SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED BOW/SUPERCELL RISK INVOF FRONTAL
ZONE AS WELL. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND AVAILABLE VWP DATA SUGGEST
45-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES OVER WRN NY. MCV IS EVIDENT IN
REMNANTS OF SERN LOWER MI COMPLEX...IN ADDITION TO OLDER MCV MOVING
EWD FROM LM OVER LOWER MI. THESE MAY ENHANCE BOTH GRADIENT FLOW AND
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO ITS SE OVER AREAS ADJOINING LE.
..EDWARDS.. 06/27/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 39908445 40188436 40148405 40278401 40218356 40468360
40458312 40678281 40768272 40928273 40988247 41088233
41678240 42158129 42388010 42867890 42977901 43287906
43337779 43247750 42277751 41367839 40357999 39998233
39908445
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment