SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281545
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-281645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN OH...ERN LOWER MI...LE...LH.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281545Z - 281645Z
BAND OF SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF COLD
FRONT AS FOREGOING AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS
REMAINING PORTIONS ERN LOWER MI INTO ONT WHILE POTENTIALLY
BACKBUILDING SWD TOWARD NWRN OH INVOF LE. CONVECTION COULD
INTENSIFY TO SVR LEVELS FOR SHORT TIME BEFORE MOVING OVER LH...LE
AND EWD OVER CANADA...WHERE GREATER SVR THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THIS
REGIME. ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN.
LIMITED TIME/SPATIAL AREA AFFECTED PROBABLY WILL PRECLUDE WW.
15Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL LH SWD ACROSS MI
THUMB...TO NEAR ARB-IND LINE...MOVING EWD ABOUT 25 KT...WITH
SECONDARY/REINFORCING FRONTAL SEGMENT MOVING EWD ABOUT 30 KT ACROSS
NRN LOWER MI. WHILE CONVECTION MAY BACKBUILD SWD FROM EXISTING
ACTIVITY OVER NERN LOWER MI...ALONG WRN FRONTAL SEGMENT...PRIND MAIN
FRONT WILL SERVE AS PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXTENDING
SWD TOWARD NWRN OH. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NARROW
CORRIDOR OF UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS AHEAD OF MAIN COLD
FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTES TO MLCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.
MLCINH HAS BECOME NEGLIGIBLE. ALTHOUGH PREFRONTAL KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES...LIMITING CONVERGENCE...SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AROUND 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
THEREFORE...ANY SUSTAINED CELLS WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR BOW OR
SUPERCELL EVOLUTION.
..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...
LAT...LON 42118062 41468107 41138176 40618408 41008480 41678398
42718327 43668319 43918436 44408428 44968343 45028252
43458228 43038241 42828247 42708248 42558260 42378282
42318303 42168315 41938311 41768269 41838209 42088133
42128094 42118062
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