SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281605
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-281700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN PA...CENTRAL/WRN NY...ERN LE.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281605Z - 281700Z
ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING INVOF LAKE BREEZES...INITIALLY OVER
PORTIONS NWRN PA AND FAR WRN NY...MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
AND POSE RISK OF SVR HAIL/GUSTS.
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS RATHER DENSE/PERSISTENT CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS MUCH
OF WRN/NRN PA AND NERN OH...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING IS
OCCURRING TO ITS N...AND UNDER ITS THINNER NRN FRINGES...TO REDUCE
MLCINH TO ALMOST NOTHING. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MLCAPE RISING INTO 500-1000 J/KG RANGE THROUGH MIDDAY...AS SFC
HEATING AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS COUNTERACT MODEST
LAPSE RATES ALOFT IN GENERATING ADDITIONAL BUOYANCY. ALTHOUGH
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND VWP SUGGEST ONLY ABOUT 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE ACROSS THIS AREA ATTM...TWO EFFECTS MAY
INCREASE SHEAR DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...
1. TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT RELATED TO APCHG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NRN ONT AND
LOWER MI...AND
2. LOCALIZED BACKING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES...WHICH ALSO MAY CONCENTRATE LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY/ASCENT/SRH LOCALLY.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BY WEAK/WLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
LACK OF MORE ROBUST CONVERGENCE AWAY FROM LAKE BREEZE AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES IN NEAR-TERM. HOWEVER...REGIME
FARTHER W -- DESCRIBED IN MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151 -- MAY CROSS ONT
AND AFFECT THIS REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...
LAT...LON 42308066 42398000 42917886 42987899 43157903 43327892
43357792 43267756 43287702 43647570 43037549 42577601
42257718 42147818 41757945 41618042 42308066
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