MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1153

ACUS11 KWNS 281641
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281626
PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-281830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN WV...CENTRAL/SRN PA...MD W OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY...NRN/WRN VA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281626Z - 281830Z

SVR POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE OVER INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC REGION
INTO E-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING GUSTS
ARE MAIN THREAT...WITH AT LEAST MRGLLY SVR HAIL ALSO LIKELY.

HEATING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV/SRN PA...AND W OF BLUE RIDGE IN
VA/MD...ALREADY HAS ERODED MLCINH TO NEGLIGIBLE LEVELS...WITH
PROFUSE TCU AND EARLY-STAGE CB EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY.
THICK/PERSISTENT CLOUD PLUME IS EVIDENT -- BISECTING PA FROM SW-NE
AND CONTRIBUTING TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG ITS SRN RIM OVER SRN
PA. CONTINUED HEATING OF LOWER TERRAIN OF PIEDMONT/COASTAL
PLAIN...S OF CLOUD SHIELD AND WHERE SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO 70S
F ARE COMMON -- WILL OFFSET MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO BOOST MLCAPE
INTO 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD
TO EWD EXPANSION OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY...AMIDST MRGL DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. PRESENCE OF WLY SFC WIND COMPONENT...AND HORIZONTAL
DISPLACEMENT FROM STRONGEST WLYS ALOFT -- CONTRIBUTE TO ONLY 30-35
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES ATTM. THESE VALUES MAY INCREASE
SOMEWHAT AS GREAT LAKES TROUGH ALOFT APCHS...AND AS BUOYANT LAYER
DEEPENS.

..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 37838203 38838023 40337853 40757695 40097594 39717576
39367624 39147649 38827661 38497651 38177637 37667795
37148104 37838203

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