SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281649
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-281745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN NJ...ERN PA...SERN NY...SRN
VT...SRN NH...CT...MA...RI.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 281649Z - 281745Z
SVR POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON OVER SWATH
OF NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN FAVORABLY DESTABILIZING
AIR MASS...WITH MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE BUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR BOTH
SUPERCELLULAR AND BOWING STORM MORPHOLOGIES.
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING ZONE FROM
S-CENTRAL PA NEWD TO SRN PA -- RELATED TO SRN FRINGE OF
PERSISTENT/THICK CLOUD DECK EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY. IN AND S OF
THIS ZONE -- ROUGHLY ALONG LINE FROM HGR-POU-PSM -- STG SFC HEATING
COMBINED WITH SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 70 F WILL BOOST MLCAPE INTO
1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. 12Z RAOBS AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MOIST LAYER IS RATHER SHALLOW AND EASILY MIXED
VERTICALLY...ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE THROUGH SUBCLOUD LAYER. IN TURN...THIS WILL SUPPORT
MAINTENANCE OF STG-SVR DOWNDRAFTS TO SFC...WITH RELATED WIND DAMAGE
THREAT. BELT OF ENHANCED SWLYS ALOFT...PRECEDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL OFFSET PRESENCE OF WLY SFC
WIND COMPONENT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN/SLIGHTLY INCREASE 35-50 KT
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES CURRENTLY INDICATED OVER REGION.
LACK OF MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACTUALLY MAY SUPPORT
RELATIVELY DISCRETE STORM MODES EARLY...BEFORE ACTIVITY GROWS
UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS/BANDS.
..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 39887567 40367608 40707661 40827698 41317572 41767479
42577481 42887306 43357168 43237097 43007072 42897080
42697077 42667072 42707062 42657058 42587060 42537080
42407093 42287101 42277083 42167065 42007072 41927058
41767042 41757019 41817002 41927004 42037014 41987024
42087027 42127018 42006999 41776991 41586999 41527002
41236997 41217003 41277025 41337048 41327071 41297075
41317086 41417096 41467115 41447132 41457140 41347150
41137154 41017191 40777267 40577364 40547394 40507400
40387398 39917405 39847419 39887567
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