SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281953
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-282200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NERN VA...DC...MD EXCEPT
PANHANDLE...DE...ERN PA...NJ...SERN NY...CT...MA...RI...SRN VT.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 426...427...
VALID 281953Z - 282200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
426...427...CONTINUES.
BKN BANDS OF STG-SVR TSTMS ARE FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD TO ENEWD
AT 25-35 KT ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF MD/DE/NJ/NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND.
CONVECTIVE TRANSLATIONAL SPEEDS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EACH SHOULD
INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT IN STEP WITH RELATIVELY FASTER MID-UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F MOST
AREAS...COMBINING WITH INSOLATION TO OFFSET MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND GENERATE 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. BUOYANCY WILL RESIDE ATOP
WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER SUITABLE FOR MAINTAINING HAIL AND STG-SVR
DOWNDRAFTS TO SFC.
VIS IMAGERY INDICATES FORMERLY DENSE/SW-NE ALIGNED CLOUD PLUME OVER
MUCH OF PA AND ERN NY IS THINNING/ERODING...PERMITTING ENOUGH
INSOLATION TO EFFECTIVELY REMOVE MLCINH. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY BAND OF
TSTMS IS MOVING EWD ACROSS WW AREAS ATTM...ADDITIONAL AND MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE FARTHER W...EITHER
1. DEVELOPING IN WRN PORTIONS WW IN POCKETS OF FAVORABLY
HEATED/UNSTABLE AIR E OF OLD CLOUD SHIELD THAT HAVE NOT BEEN
AFFECTED APPRECIABLY BY EARLIER TSTMS...OR
2. MOVING INTO REGION FROM SOMEWHAT LESS BUOYANT BUT DESTABILIZING
AIR MASS BENEATH ERODING CLOUD PLUME.
..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...
LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 38007521 37717592 37857753 37547878 37867915 39527757
40297762 41537390 42037394 41977353 42717307 42717250
43127242 43197116 42777081 42847014 42256966 41666949
41156953 40936989 40957049 40337306 40227360 39447389
38637469 37937491 38007521
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