SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291941
MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-292045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ORE...CNTRL ID...NW MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 291941Z - 292045Z
ISOLD TO SCTD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF ERN ORE...CNTRL ID...AND NW MT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A THREAT
FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CURRENT WV LOOP SHOWS A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF BC/WA/OR
PROGRESSING EWD. MEANWHILE...19Z VISIBLE SAT SHOWS INCREASING CU
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN ID AND WRN MT...WITH A FEW CG STRIKES NOTED. SFC
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING INSTABILITY /MLCAPES 500-1500
J/KG/ AND WEAKENING CIN FROM FAR ERN OR ACROSS CNTRL ID INTO NW MT.
WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUED
HEATING...ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE SOON ACROSS WRN MT AND IN
THE NEXT 1-2 HRS FURTHER WEST ACROSS ERN ORE INTO CNTRL ID.
VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE MDT/STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AOA 50 KTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...INCLUDING SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS
AND A SUPERCELL OR TWO. HAIL AND WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREATS.
..DEAN.. 06/29/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...
LAT...LON 44181902 46651687 47801565 48691555 49021548 48911405
48961178 48341102 46651187 43991558 43141740 44181902
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