SWODY1
SPC AC 061951
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2010
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS...
THE FIRST CHANGE FOR THE 20Z OUTLOOK IS TO ADD A 5 PERCENT TORNADO
PROBABILITY ACROSS SRN AND ERN SD EXTENDING SWWD INTO CHERRY COUNTY
NEB. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUES
ARE IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF THE 45 TO
50 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS
CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL AND A TORNADO OR TWO COULD DEVELOP AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SECOND CHANGE IS TO EXTEND
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AND PROBABILITIES A BIT FURTHER EAST ACROSS ERN
SD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL ENEWD MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS
CURRENTLY INITIATING.
..BROYLES.. 07/06/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2010/
...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL JULY TROUGH OVER NRN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY
EWD AS BAND OF STRONG SWLY FLOW IS MAINTAINED FROM CENTRAL WY ACROSS
WRN SD TO NRN MN. SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SEWD OVERNIGHT AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SCENTRAL SD WSWWD INTO SERN WY TO THE LARAMIE
RANGE.
S OF FRONT AIR MASS WILL BE FAVORABLY UNSTABLE ALONG WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON.
WHILE STRONGEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
FRONT...THERE WILL STILL BE 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM SERN WY
NEWD ACROSS NEB PANHANDLE. THUS WITH MLCAPES INCREASING EWD FROM
AROUND 1000 J/KG SERN WY TO 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF FRONT NEAR THE
CENTRAL SD/NEB BORDER...MULTICELLULAR/SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES CAN
BE EXPECTED.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE INITIAL CONCERN WITH SURFACE BASED INITIATION BY
MID AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION INTO MORE LINEAR MODE BY
EVENING AS COLD POOLS DEVELOP. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT
THIS STAGE PRIOR TO OVERALL WEAKENING BY LATER THIS EVENING AS
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. WHILE MINIMAL...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.
...LA/EAST TX...
A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS MOVED ASHORE OVER SOUTHERN
LA...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NWWD THROUGH THE DAY. A NARROW
BAND OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW IS
LOCALLY ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND MAY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT TODAY.
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