SWODY1
SPC AC 060056
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2010
VALID 060100Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL U.S...
THE MERGER OF FASTER NRN STREAM UPPER FLOW WITH A WARMER SRN STREAM
INFUSED WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN A NARROW AXIS OF
WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY AND POCKETS OF STRONGER SHEAR FROM SRN
PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MERGING AIR STREAMS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO LIFT AND
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
OF THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY...ONE OF THE MORE EXTENSIVE AND BETTER
ORGANIZED SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO WRN/NRN OK AND
INTO CNTRL KS. THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. ASCENT AND 30-40KT
SWLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AN ARC OF STORMS MOVING S/SE ACROSS KS/OK AND THE TX
PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CELLS/LINE SEGMENTS IN THE NRN
PORTION OF THIS MCS WERE MOVING AT ABOUT 30 KT TOWARD A MOIST BUT
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE STORMS IN TRAILING SEGMENT OF THE
MCS ARE MOVING MUCH SLOWER BUT WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO BE SUSTAINED
AS LLJ INCREASES AFTER DARK. A VERY LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT
IS POSSIBLE WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER STORMS/CELLS/LINES
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...AN MCV IN MO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AID
STORMS DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD ERN IA AND WRN IL OVERNIGHT.
HERE TOO...A BAND OF MODEST SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF ABOUT 40KT WILL
SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE. DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING LAPSE RATES IN THE CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION BUT
THE DEVELOPING SMALL MCS MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AS IT SPREADS NEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LASTLY...ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST
BACKGROUND ASCENT AND SHEAR WILL MOVE EAST OVER SRN MN AND INTO WRN
WI AHEAD OF A STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE
NRN PLAINS. THERE MAY BE A STORM OR TWO IN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
THAT CAN BRIEFLY ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO RESULT IN A
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUST BUT OVERALL POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE WITH
THE COMING OF NIGHT.
..CARBIN.. 07/06/2010
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