SWODY2
SPC AC 041720
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2010
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ONLY CHANGE SUBTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND
A VERY MOIST TROPICAL PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY REGION. INSTABILITY WILL BE AT A PREMIUM DURING THE
PERIOD AS LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK WITHIN HIGHER PWAT
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.
...NRN PLAINS...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROUGHING OVER SWRN CANADA/NWRN
U.S. WILL BE SHUNTED ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
WITH A BELT OF STRONGER FLOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ID/NRN WY INTO
ND AT PEAK HEATING MONDAY. MUCH OF THE STRONGER SHEAR WILL LAG THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITHIN A DRIER STABLE AIRMASS...THOUGH
20-30KT H5 FLOW WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE CONVERGENT WIND SHIFT WHEN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT DEPICT SIGNIFICANT SHEAR THROUGH 6KM
EXCEPT ACROSS ND AND MORE MEANINGFUL TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL DEFINITELY BE SHUNTED WELL SE OF THIS REGION BY
INITIATION. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING UPDRAFTS AND LESSENING
SEVERE THREAT.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SRN EXTENT OF DAY1 PLAINS SFC FRONT SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS CNTRL
KS...SWWD INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION BEFORE ARCING INTO NERN
NM. STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG WRN FRINGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF WIND SHIFT WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD AID CONVERGENCE. REGARDLESS...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
REMAIN MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK SUPERCELLS AND MORE LIKELY
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG MULTI-CELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
..DARROW.. 07/04/2010
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