SWODY2
SPC AC 061726
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2010
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY AS A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INITIATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SERN CO
NEWD ACROSS NW KS INTO ERN NEB AND SRN MN DUE TO SFC HEATING AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S F WHICH SHOULD REALIZE MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS
A BROAD CORRIDOR SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP
BY LATE AFTERNOON. ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS WEDNESDAY GENERALLY
HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES BELOW 30 KT WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE
THREAT MARGINAL. HOWEVER...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME STEEP IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST A LINEAR MCS COULD ORGANIZE
BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE NAM POINTING TO THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS
OCCURS...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE
GREATEST IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE IN SE CO AND
NW KS WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE STEEP DUE
TO AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
..BROYLES.. 07/06/2010
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