SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012257
NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-020000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0557 PM CDT THU JUL 01 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436...
VALID 012257Z - 020000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436
CONTINUES.
NUMEROUS INTENSE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL MT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE WELL WITHIN THE CONFINES OF WATCH 436. THIS
ACTIVITY IS SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35-40KT AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO PORTIONS OF NERN MT THROUGH THE EVENING.
STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
LAST 1-2 HOURS FROM GALLATIN...MEAGHER...AND JUDITH BASIN COUNTIES
EAST TO SWEET GRASS...GOLDEN VALLEY...AND FERGUS COUNTIES. THESE
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WHERE
MLCAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG. WEAK LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW TOPPED
BY 40-50KT SWLY FLOW IN MID LEVELS WAS CONTRIBUTING TO MORE THAN
ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR FOR STORM UPDRAFT ROTATION AND PERSISTENCE.
LARGE SCALE FORCING...WHILE SUBTLE...APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
BAND OF 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING WITHIN/BENEATH ENTRANCE
REGION OF MID LEVEL JET STREAK CROSSING NWRN MT ATTM.
ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY SUPPORTING MATURE
SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO EXIST/EVOLVE WITH EWD/NEWD
EXTENT...INTO PARTS OF NERN/ERN MT THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE
PRIMARY THREATS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE THREAT FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE MAY EVOLVE AS STORM MERGERS PRODUCE
LARGER COLD POOLS AND MCS POTENTIAL INCREASES LATER THIS EVENING.
..CARBIN.. 07/01/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...
LAT...LON 47711144 48141140 48101081 48211084 48191075 49011078
48980727 48990568 48990403 46620406 46620438 46680459
46660473 46470470 46480490 46140488 45800494 45800624
44970623 44991104 44431104 44741133 44711148 44531147
44511183 44531229 44431233 44481273 44191279 44221330
44441349 44501386 44741419 44881417 44711437 44571450
44571461 44751480 45161471 45301457 45481482 45531450
45711450 45841449 45841437 46141451 46661430 46631376
46741369 46751350 46851346 46851327 47181332 47171348
47611347 47611311 47741314 47771305 47921307 47971294
47631290 47701264 47531219 47531193 47651190 47711144
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment