SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022143
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-022315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0443 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN MT...WRN ND...EXTREME NWRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 022143Z - 022315Z
21Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 997 MB LOW OVER SERN MT WITH A DRY LINE
BULGING NEWD ACROSS SERN MT AND NERN WY. CUMULUS WAS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE DRY LINE INTERFACE AND AHEAD OF A SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SITUATED JUST EAST OF KGGW AND KJDN.
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOWER-MID 90S COMMON AMID UPPER 50S TO MID 60S DEW POINTS. GIVEN
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.5 DEG C PER KM...RESULTANT
MLCAPE WAS WELL OVER 2000 J/KG. QUESTION REMAINS IF THE CAP CAN BE
BREACHED AND WHETHER STORMS CAN INITIATE AND BECOME SUSTAINED.
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT DAMAGING/SEVERE WINDS AND
HAIL SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP. 18Z HIGH-RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH
MODEL HAS BEEN INSISTENT IN DEVELOPING STORMS IN SERN MT BY 23Z WITH
SUBSEQUENT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO WRN ND BY LATE EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING CUMULUS AND SHOULD
INITIATION OCCUR...A WEATHER WATCH WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
..RACY.. 07/02/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 45040588 45920661 47070569 48770462 48840331 48490252
47750229 46980249 45070407 45040588
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