SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041934
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-042130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1200
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN KS INTO FAR SERN NEB/FAR NWRN MO AND
FAR SWRN IA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 041934Z - 042130Z
BY 20-22Z...RAINFALL RATES /1-2 INCHES PER HOUR/ ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND/OR SPREAD INTO THE REST OF OTTAWA TO GEARY COUNTIES
KS...AND NEWD GENERALLY 15-20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
DICKINSON COUNTY KS TO PAGE COUNTY IA. THESE RATES...SOME
ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED TSTMS...SHOULD PERSIST WITHIN THE
DISCUSSION AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
SERN MN SWWD THROUGH SWRN IA TO CENTRAL KS...AND THEN WWD INTO WRN
KS. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED CONVECTION WAS STRONGEST ALONG THE
FRONT AND LIKELY SUPPORTED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT PER SSWLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO IA. THIS CORRIDOR OF
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT RICH MOISTURE NNEWD AHEAD OF
AND ATOP THE FRONT TO SUPPORT PERSISTENT CONVECTION...PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SSEWD.
MEANWHILE...IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY ALONG AND IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...AN AREA OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WAS TRACKING NEWD
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TO NERN KS /LOCATED FROM MHK TO W OF ICT AT
19Z/. WITHIN THIS AREA...THE GREATEST RAINFALL RATES WERE CONFINED
TO A 10 MILE WIDE ZONE FROM HARPER COUNTY TO WRN MARION COUNTY WHERE
SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS MAXIMIZED PER OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES. THIS LATTER AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS LIKELY BEING
AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A NEWD MOVING MIDLEVEL
IMPULSE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH 00Z.
THE COMBINATION OF PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES WITHIN THE DEEP
MOIST PLUME PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES /HIGH FREEZING LEVELS IN EXCESS OF 15
KFT/ SUGGEST WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL GREATLY ENHANCE RAINFALL
RATES. THIS THREAT WILL BE GREATEST WITH THE MERGER OF THE ACTIVITY
MOVING NEWD INTO THE SLOW MOVING FRONT IN NERN KS BETWEEN 21-00Z.
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS SCENARIO.
..PETERS.. 07/04/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38829745 38999787 39419707 39839652 40479562 40809523
40839473 40279514 39829558 38969630 38749668 38829745
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment