SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042144
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-042315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0444 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...SE CO...EXTREME SW KS...WRN OK
PANHANDLE...WRN TX PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 042144Z - 042315Z
CU HAS BEGUN TO SPROUT INTO THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS/WET MOUNTAINS OF SE CO SWD TO THE RATON MESA IN NERN NM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER PLAINS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SFC DEW POINTS CIRCULATING WWD TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH PLAINS INHIBITION HAS BEEN TOUGH TO ERASE...ONCE
THE HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS INCREASE IN NUMBER...COLD OUTFLOW WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE PLAINS BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS TO LFC
WITH SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE CO AND NE NM LATER THIS
EVENING.
STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST N OF THE PALMER DIVIDE WITH
ROUGHLY 30-35 KTS OF 0-6KM VALUES INTO NE NM. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SUFFICIENT TURNING IN THE LOWEST 3-4 KM WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND MAYBE A BRIEF
TORNADO. EVENTUALLY...STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO LOOSELY-ORGANIZED
LINES/CLUSTERS AS THEY MOVE TOWARD SW KS AND THE PANHANDLES OF TX/OK
WITH DAMAGING WINDS.
..RACY.. 07/04/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36640105 35560158 35000237 34520327 35310372 36160446
38440575 38800421 38210301 37440127 36640105
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