MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1209

ACUS11 KWNS 051754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051754
WIZ000-MIZ000-051930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1209
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN-NERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 051754Z - 051930Z

MARGINAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN-NERN WI THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR SVR WEATHER APPEARS LIMITED ENOUGH ATTM TO
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 17Z INDICATED A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
RESIDING INVOF LSE...WITH A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
EWD ACROSS SRN WI. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NWD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN WI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND TO ITS S WARMING INTO THE 80S F. VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE REGION...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE INCREASING SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WILL YIELD SUBSTANTIAL
CAPE IN THE LOWEST 3 KM/S. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONGLY
VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES NEAR THE RETREATING BOUNDARY MAY
RESULT IN SHALLOW ROTATING UPDRAFTS POSING A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..GARNER.. 07/05/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON 43468771 43188904 43329094 44089102 45318950 45168723
43468771

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