MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1223

ACUS11 KWNS 071927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071926
OKZ000-TXZ000-072100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK TO TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 071926Z - 072100Z

WITHIN A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL-LIKE ENVIRONMENT...SEVERAL CORRIDORS OF
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS SHOULD POSE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...WITH RATES AS HIGH AS 1-1.5 IN/HR.

ACROSS EASTERN OK...SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE/SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OK TOWARD/ACROSS
I-40...IN TANDEM WITH ARCING CONFLUENCE BANDS ON THE IMMEDIATE
PERIPHERY OF A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVING TROPICAL-LIKE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK. GPS DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AS
HIGH AS 2.2 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON...AND WARM
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES/EVIDENCE OF LIMITED LIGHTNING ARE SUGGESTIVE
OF HIGHLY EFFICIENT WARM-RAIN PROCESSES.

ELSEWHERE...SLOW MOVING TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OK INTO
ADJACENT NORTH TX. WEAK LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS PER DERIVED
WIND PROFILER/WSR-88D VWP DATA...AND A RESERVOIR OF HIGH PW WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000-2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/...WILL SUPPORT SLOW
MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...A LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY/WATER LOADING.

ADDITIONALLY...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN A MOIST/WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS ON THE S/SE
FRINGE OF A RESIDUAL SLOW MOVING MCV ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.

..GUYER.. 07/07/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 36509768 36019675 36049546 35749518 35189512 35099523
34099583 35059712 33549936 33240160 33770214 34800109
34919926 36509768

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