SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112019
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-112115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1254
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...SRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 450...
VALID 112019Z - 112115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 450
CONTINUES.
SEVERE STORMS ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF WW 450 /WITHIN WW 451/ FROM
NEAR MKC INTO CENTRAL MO...WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ST CLAIR CNTY MO INTO MIAMI CNTY KS.
OTHER STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING
OVER S CNTRL/SERN MO WITHIN WW 450.
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE TO 2500 J/KG FROM ERN KS INTO SRN MO. WEAK
CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED
WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 70-80 KT UPPER JET...IS
LIKELY TO INITIATE/MAINTAIN INTENSE CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS AND SEVERE
THREAT WILL CONTINUE BYD SCHEDULE WATCH EXPIRATION TIME OF 21Z.
CURRENT STORMS OVER CENTRAL MO APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING INTO AN
ACCELERATING/BOWING MCS AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED REPLACING WWS 450 AND 451 WITHIN THE
NEXT 30 MIN FROM PARTS OF EXTREME ERN KS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN
MO...SRN IL...WRN KY AND NWRN TN.
..WEISS.. 07/11/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...
ICT...
LAT...LON 37998991 37438772 35808791 35969001 36549146 36549440
37109520 39189519 38609175 37978986 37998991
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