SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121924
MSZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-122130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1267
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST OK AND AR TO WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 121924Z - 122130Z
TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK/MUCH OF AR TO
WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WATCH.
AHEAD OF ONE OR MORE WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES/MCVS ACROSS OK/FAR
NORTH TX...TSTMS SEEM LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
WITHIN A GENERAL WEST-EAST OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING INDUCED
CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK/MUCH OF AR TO WESTERN TN/NORTHWEST MS.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY REACHED 90 F IN MOST LOCALES
THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...AND A MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH MID/UPPER 70S F DEWPOINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO ESTIMATED
MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 2500-3000 J/KG. PER REGIONAL
PROFILERS/WSR-88D VWPS...MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30 KT AND LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL LIKELY YIELD THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MULTICELLULAR/EASTWARD MOVING LINEAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF WIND
DAMAGE. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR ECHO TRAINING WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR...AND THE EXPECTATION FOR ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
INCREASE AFTER DARK...THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY INTO TONIGHT.
..GUYER.. 07/12/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 34989561 35799377 36208942 34858925 33949068 34059510
34989561
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