MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1384

ACUS11 KWNS 201927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201926
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-202100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...EXTREME SERN NE...NWRN/WEST CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201926Z - 202100Z

BAND OF ELEVATED STORMS ALONG NERN KS/SERN NE BORDER IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS EWD/ESEWD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON. WW MAY BE
NEEDED BY 21-22Z.

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PERSISTING ALONG/NORTH OF A FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM SWRN IA INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS. THE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL
WINDS...AND ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF WARMER 700 MB TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL PROVIDE A SRN LIMIT TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR
MASS OVER CENTRAL/ERN KS IS VERY WARM/MOIST WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID
70S...CONTRIBUTING VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500
J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE THE CAP IS WEAKENING OVER ERN KS
AND STORM UPDRAFTS MAY GRADUALLY BECOME BASED IN THE PBL BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF MKC METRO AREA
SUGGESTS AIR MASS IS RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
EWD/ESEWD INTO PARTS OF NWRN/W CNTRL MO WITH TIME. AREA
PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE 40 KT WESTERLY FLOW AND 40-50 KT VERTICAL
SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL...WHICH WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION
AND INTENSITY ASSUMING SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
CURRENT STORMS WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WW MAY BE NEEDED.

..WEISS.. 07/20/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 40129658 40329520 39899315 39119210 38189214 37929297
38429455 38799587 38949696 39049758 39569760 40029700
40129658

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