SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211929
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-212130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1400
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...SERN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211929Z - 212130Z
LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS NWRN/N
CNTRL WY AND INTO S CNTRL MT...INTO REGION OF INCREASING MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
ALTHOUGH EARLIER CONVECTION WEAKENED AS IT MOVED ACROSS WRN WY...AIR
MASS OVER NERN WY AND SERN MT REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH DEW POINTS
NEAR 60F WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MUCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES
CONVECTION INITIATING ON THE NERN SLOPES OF BIG HORN MTNS...AND THIS
ACTIVITY MAY MOVE NEWD INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SWLY MID
LEVEL WINDS OF 30-40 KT AND RESULTANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF STORMS INTENSIFY AND MOVE OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
..WEISS.. 07/21/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...
LAT...LON 45220389 44260401 43650402 43320516 43370615 44130754
45240823 45830842 46340832 46750708 46890553 46610421
45220389
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