SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222050
MIZ000-222145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1417
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 222050Z - 222145Z
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF SRN LOWER MI. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON.
LATEST SFC SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT MOVING N INTO
CNTRL LOWER MI. RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...WITH A SMALL LINE SEGMENT OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN TRANSITIONING INTO A SFC-BASED SUPERCELL OVER
KALAMAZOO COUNTY. GIVEN VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILES AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS...THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIST...PARTICULARLY WITH STORMS TRACKING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE WITH EWD
EXTENT...SO THE THREAT SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO S CNTRL AND SERN
LOWER MI. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE HAIL THREAT
SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF SUPERCELLS.
..ROGERS.. 07/22/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 41718382 41808529 42208545 42458516 42668495 42498391
42438351 42298306 41728344 41718382
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