SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222131
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-222300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1418
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0431 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO AND WESTERN/NORTHERN KS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 222131Z - 222300Z
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL CO
INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN KS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB. MONITORING FOR A
POSSIBLE WATCH.
DEEPENING/TOWERING CU IS NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN A
HOT/DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE FRONT FROM EASTERN
CO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN KS...WITH INCIPIENT
STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY IN EASTERN CO. TSTMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY WARM
WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND A FLOW WEAKNESS IS NOTED IN
THE LOWEST 5-6 KM. HOWEVER...DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG
INSTABILITY/1500-3000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH VEERING
WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR...BUT INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
..GUYER.. 07/22/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 37690107 38200376 39310432 39580397 39500259 40220115
40509966 39379872 37690107
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